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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."